12 people left, that's one for every month of the year!
And 11 more people to beat :)
1. On paper this looked like a much simpler vote than the last one. The Valentine tribe seems split in 2, Are these old lines or has a new majority formed? Do you expect similar voting blocks next round?
I think this vote proved the last vote was pretty much just tribal lines, with some advantages thrown in and some mistakes. Much ado about nothing, and it blew up in our faces like a bad science experiment. This was the "oh fuck, let's try again before we can really start playing the game" round from the OG Munin, and we pulled it off while pulling a vote flip from Tammy. At this point I expect things to shift. I'm just not sure how.
Russell, Joaquin, and Tammy cannot make it to the end of this game. Ideally they should be broken up soon. The big question is who is going to be the first to turn against OG Munin and pull that off. Russell has lost that opportunity - it's blown up in his face. Joaquin is shrewd enough to try it but I don't think he'd get very far. Catalie could do it, but it wouldn't be against me. If Cristina does, I'm in along for that ride and I'm forcing Melinda with me. Steph won't. I don't think she has the connections to try.
At this point, Cassandra, Kim, and Penner might have exhausted most of their options. They have to keep working on Six New Munin strong because even though the Val vote went through, they lost Jeff and partly Tammy this time. I'm giving them that reassurance and they have to believe it's real from me. I'm not sure if it is yet, and I'm not sure how Melinda feels.
Whatever the new/old majority is, I plan to be in it, and I don't think I've lost my footing yet. I'm slowly trying to get a little bolder, say things that could possibly bite me in the ass, etc. I'm still only looking one or two steps ahead, but if I'm still here by the end of this week I need to be planning for end game and jury votes too. Out of a cast of all winners it's difficult to think about an ideal f3. Right now it looks like Steph could be a good person to have there near the end with me, based on her connections. But winning prospects really will shift round by round here, and I think the game needs shaken up a little bit more before I can make those evaluations.
2. Were you surprised at all by Jeff's departure? Tell us why Jeff going was good for your game. If it wasn't, what's your plan to pivot going forward?
Thankfully, I was not. Jeff and I could have had a great thing going if we met earlier in the game, I bet. Or if we got to talk further in the game. However, I had no reason to protect him, and it would have looked very strange if I had. Even though I was working the angle with him as a secret duo, I also know he was close with Penner and Cassandra, which could have been more dangerous to me in the long term.
I'm worried that, with those OG Fenrir, certain OG Munins are "picking up favorites" on the side to try to use as a number for them. Joaq and Russ have Tammy (maybe even Catalie too, that could be a group of four), Cristina is definitely closer to Cass and Kim than I am, Melinda is closer with Penner and maybe Cass, and I'm not sure about poor Yve. The point is, none of them are "mine", which could be bad if I keep them around. At the same time, Joaquin and Russell are also definitely not mine. Cristina, Steph, Melinda, and maybe Cat are the people I think have my back as a first, second, or even third priority. Those are the people I need to keep in this game.
3. It seems like idols are having an effect on every tribal without even coming out. How can you maintain control over votes without knowing the location of all idols and advantages? What do you know for sure about what people have up their sleeve?
Well luckily for me, I have the only remaining swap idol. And Melinda has (what I think is?) the only remaining pre merge advantage. Cassandra was in the HII forum during TC, so I'm pretty sure she doesn't have it yet. Speaking of the merge idol, I've done a little bit of searching, but...no leads so far. Wednesday is my busiest day too, so I don't expect to be able to put too much time into it. Yay for paranoia.
SPEAKING of Melinda's extra vote - that expires tomorrow. I think we should do something shady with it. Where no one knows it was Melinda who had it and we create utter chaos. But, it's Melinda's vote so, we shall see. If Cass had this advantage, she knows it's only good for the first three tribals someone attends. She'd expect this one to be from the Munin beach, and thus know that the only people it could still be eligible for are me, Melinda, and Cristina. In that case, it might not be smart to do something chaotic, because it isn't as anonymous as I thought.
I'm talking myself in circles here - I'll stop boring you all with it and keep my head spinning through it for the next couple hours before I pass out.
