[Danni Boatwright]

5-Penner: Still seems to be the least threatening of the big threats alliance. No one is actively targeting him at the moment which is a good sign

lol how things change over a weekend

[Danni Boatwright]

1-Catalie: I have no idea why no one is targeting her yet. I think they all see how well positioned she is within the tribe, but her alliances with Joaq/Stephanie/Kim keep her covered from all sides. She stayed relatively free from the drama around the double tribal, and still has a shield in Joaquin who just became public enemy #1

2-Kim: She took a hit losing Tammy last night. But with Joaquin as the only player truly after her, I think she can rebound and continue her run to the end. Cass is still a jucier target for the vultures, especially after an idol play.

3-Stephanie: Her first appearance on my list, but she seems to be the tightest with Catalie while remaining as a moderate threat. She is in Russells end game plans as well but is more liked and respected by the other players. I think she's a definite endgame threat, especially once Catalie becomes the biggest target in the field.

4-Loveita: I think her move to take out Joaquin (even though it failed) could earn her some goodwill with Kim and Cass and keep her safe for a round or two. With Joaquin as the defacto target, she should be safe to try and ingratiate herself with Russell again.

5-Russell: I don't think he's winning. But the other options were the GOAT goat Yve and the two players who used idols at the last tribal. Russ is on this list because Cass and Joaquin fell so far in a single night lol. He's playing a decent middle of the road game using Joaquin as a shield, but if the majority rules answers were any indication he'll have a tough sell to the jury at final tribal.

[Gary Hogeboom]

The final 8 is in 3 groups: 1. frontrunners (Joaq, Cass, Catalie) 2. backseat drivers (Kim Love) 3. Probably can't win (Russ, Steph, Yve)

1. Kim M.- The only remaining player who's not seen as a huge threat but has made tons of waves in the game. At this point in the game people are gonna be targetting either goats or obvious jury threats. Kim has kept herself out of both of those groups so It's hers to lose at this point. She needs to figure out how to remove or out-maneuver Joaq Cat and Cass if she wants to clinch FTC. Her power here comes from Paths to the end and being a threat to sway that Jury.

2. Loveita - Her early legwork in the social game is paying off in the form of a Munin-heavy jury that is going to be favorable to her story. If she can seat a couple more friendly faces there (e.g., steph, Joaq) I think she's gonna have a huge advantage against almost anyone else at ftc. Everyone sees her threat level but she has nestled slightly behind the frontrunners here. She could also easily win her way to FTC and leave jurors no choice. It's gonna come down to who she manages to sit next to, obviously.

3. Cassandra - At this point I'm just picking which frontrunner has the best chance of making the end. Catalie has f4 boot written all over her and Joaq is already idol/immunity dependent to survive every round. That leaves the powerhouse cass who just lost a massively important ally which lowered her threat level considerably but also reduced her influence over votes.

[Danni Boatwright]

This will probably be my last post since the end game seems pretty straightforward. I've ranked the F6 on win equity and liklihood on making the final tribal council.

1: Catalie- If she makes the final tribal she's winning. There is no question about it. However, with Joaquin gone she is the primary target for most of the cast. I see her surviving one more tribal with Cass keeping her around as a shield before she gets cut. However, if she can immunity whore to the end she'll sweep the jury

2: Cass- Despite a bumpy merge, Cass is somehow still in the game, and all the idols people speculated that she had have appeared! The power of manifestation! Cass is a great competitor in the immunities, has catalie around as a more pressing target, and has been in the mix all merge. I haven't ranked her in my contenders because she seemed like such a threat (and at times a total mess), but if she can win a crucial immunity and play her idol correctly here at the last tribal it's good for, she could clinch the win.

3: Stephanie- Playing a classic likable UTR game. her alliance with Catalie has been essential in getting her this far, bu her social game is keeping her off of people's radars. She's also great at competitions, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her win one or two here at the end to carry her into FTC. I think if we lose Cat/Cass, it will be a toss up between her and Kim, but I think steph caused less waves and is therefore more likely to sit better with the jury.

4: Kim- I love kim, as you can tell from all of my contender charts lol. However, I think her choice to flip and take out loveita and then to take out joaquin may have tanked her jury chances a bit. I think she's played a pretty solid game to get this far, and she has always been in the mix strategically, but I wonder if she lacks the social capital to pull off a win against anyone but Yve and Russell. Luckily for her, she realizes this and is working towards that specific final 3. I would rate her above Steph, but i think steph's comp abilities just edge her out.

5: Russell- lol. talk about a chaotic merge game. I think Russ has the same issue as Kim where he strategically makes the best choices for his game at each vote, but the way he goes about it really rubs the rest of the players the wrong way. He recognizes his status in the game and is actively working against that perception, and he also realizes which players he has the best chance of beating at the end. I think he's a FTC player for sure, I just wonder if he's able to make it there with any kind of win equity.

6: Yve- our favorite goat <3 Its always hard to watch when someone knows they're a goat from the early portion of the merge and just can't shake the label. Yve has been fun to watch but I just think there is no way she wins the game unless the jury wanted to give a big middle finger to Russ and Kim. She managed to survive a long time after her name was first brought up as a potential boot at the merge, so at least she had to fight for her spot here.


Based on the above Criteria, I think our likley winners are Steph>Kim>Russell>Cass>Catalie>Yve

And that's all she wrote folks